英中銀MPC議事録 を全部読んでみたのですが、やけに何度も最近のポンド高について明記されているのを発見
しました。
16 Twelve-month CPI inflation had been 2.8% in August, in line with the Committee’s and market participants’ expectations. The outlook for inflation remained broadly as set out in the August Inflation Report. The 4% increase in the sterling price of oil would be likely to raise the near-term profile for inflation;
while the appreciation of sterling, if sustained, would bear down on inflation further out, including in the 18-24 months ahead range pertinent for the forward guidance knockout.21 There had been some notable developments over the month. Domestically, there were increased signs that the recovery was taking hold, which had been accompanied by an upward movement in sterling market interest rates. The GDP data for the second quarter had been revised up, and survey indicators of activity had been upbeat. Those data presented an upside risk to the growth profile described in the August Inflation Report. Internationally, there were signs that growth in the euro area – the United Kingdom’s largest trading partner – had been stronger than the Committee had anticipated. But the downside risks presented by developments in several emerging economies had increased. Oil prices had risen, which would probably push up the path for CPI inflation a little in the near term. But
this had been partly offset by the appreciation of sterling, which itself was likely to dampen inflationary pressures somewhat in the medium term.24 Against the backdrop of indicators of stronger near-term growth than seemed likely a month earlier, there were tentative signs that the degree of spare capacity within firms might be beginning to diminish. But it remained too early to assess how likely it was that effective supply capacity would increase as demand recovered, thus moderating any additional inflationary impetus resulting from that extra demand.
If sustained, the appreciation of sterling meant that CPI inflation was marginally less likely than a month ago to be above 2.5% in 18-24 months’time.
赤くハイライトした部分が、ポンド高に関する言及箇所。
実際の理事会に出席した訳ではないので、その時のニュアンスは判りませんが、これを読む限り、
’’’’’最近の英国のインフレ上昇を抑えているのは、他でもない【ポンド実効レート】高である
最近導入された
フォワードガイダンスのノックアウト条件 には「18～24ヶ月後のインフレ見通しが、2.5％以上のレベルで推移すると、MPCが判断した時」というものがあるが、ポンド高によるインフレ圧力沈静化のお陰で、中期的にも2.5％は、越えないと予想する’’’’’
など、ポンド高を歓迎！とまでは言いませんが、インフレ沈静化にかなり役立っているという前向きな姿勢で、最近のポンド高をとらえていることが、判りました。
ここでは、詳しく書きませんが、英中銀の政策金利とポンド実効レートの間には、『4対1方式』というものがあり、かなり密接に連動しています。
これに関しては、また機会をあらためて書いてみますね
もし この記事がお役に立ちましたら 3段攻めポチッ
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