MPC理事 ポーゼン氏
更なる量的緩和が必要
1990年代の日本と同じ道を歩む事になる可能性も示唆
これを受けてポンド脳天逆落とし
The Bank of England should start pumping more money into the economy in order to prevent Britain falling into the same kind of slump Japan did in the 1990s, Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen said on Tuesday.
Arguing that while his vote at the October MPC meeting was not a foregone conclusion, Posen said right now he believed more stimulus was needed, raising the prospect of a three-way split or even a decision to restart quantitative easing next week.
'The case I wish to make is that monetary policy should continue to be aggressive about promoting recovery, and subject to further debate, I think further easing should be undertaken,' Posen said, according to the text of a speech to be given in Hull, northern England.
Like the majority of the MPC, Posen had earlier this month voted to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent and keep the stock of asset purchases with newly-created money, QE, at 200 billion pounds, leaving Andrew Sentance alone in calling for a quarter-point rate rise for the fourth month running.
Most analysts expect the BoE to leave policy unchanged well into next year even though the minutes of the September meeting did reveal some members -- one of them almost certainly Posen -- had thought the probability easing would be needed had gone up.
Posen said there was no one bit of data that had changed his mind and pushed him to argue for more stimulus. Rather he had considered the evidence of history and other countries.
'My assessment instead rests upon the path of post-crisis developments having been broadly consistent with these past patterns as seen in Japan in the 1990s and in the United States and Europe in the 1930s: economic recovery following a financial crisis is a long process dominated by the interaction of unemployed resources,dysfunctional banking systems, and the degree of policy stimulus,' he said.
We are a long way from home and a long, long way from overheating,' adding that he expected inflation to fall well below target in 2012-13.
Posen said that his preferred method of stimulating the economy was more QE but if that failed the government could resort to more fiscal stimulus or buying corporate bonds
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